Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.122570 0.143912 0.168695 0.199802 0.238085 0.284022 0.343866
2025-09-14 0.093893 0.119436 0.152165 0.197873 0.261174 0.347454 0.476982
2025-09-21 0.072414 0.098348 0.134414 0.189619 0.274559 0.404842 0.629332
2025-09-28 0.052583 0.075111 0.108509 0.163543 0.255929 0.412737 0.718432
2025-10-05 0.043952 0.066168 0.101400 0.164275 0.280578 0.502420 1.004264
2025-10-12 0.038090 0.060267 0.097789 0.170225 0.318098 0.637120 1.488435
2025-10-19 0.032955 0.054509 0.093176 0.173458 0.353537 0.792544 2.185559
2025-10-26 0.028859 0.049727 0.089265 0.177269 0.393816 0.991937 3.281280
2025-11-02 0.024744 0.044107 0.082508 0.173216 0.415329 1.164679 4.603089
2025-11-09 0.020995 0.038490 0.074539 0.164117 0.420791 1.301106 6.103702
2025-11-16 0.018671 0.035286 0.070982 0.164816 0.456281 1.584369 9.228129
2025-11-23 0.016690 0.032432 0.067582 0.165002 0.492075 1.920687 14.136372
2025-11-30 0.015035 0.030079 0.065065 0.167699 0.543092 2.426605 23.934701
2025-12-07 0.013606 0.027975 0.062702 0.170316 0.598750 3.079704 42.439054
2025-12-14 0.012112 0.025462 0.058761 0.166767 0.629031 3.669967 70.289006
2025-12-21 0.010192 0.021647 0.050643 0.146732 0.572477 3.554760 81.082132
2025-12-28 0.009383 0.020390 0.049182 0.149347 0.629969 4.539170 163.101118
2026-01-04 0.008809 0.019616 0.048905 0.156359 0.720251 6.191441 414.406146
2026-01-11 0.008213 0.018687 0.047979 0.160726 0.803593 8.214365 1136.390910
2026-01-18 0.007688 0.017856 0.047169 0.165432 0.898446 11.044254 3955.575836
2026-01-25 0.007047 0.016615 0.044823 0.162689 0.941262 13.418415 12565.777262
2026-02-01 0.006376 0.015199 0.041638 0.155011 0.940550 15.054090 35975.806193
2026-02-08 0.005961 0.014437 0.040447 0.156296 1.018444 19.536099 357088.306843